The Ninth Circuit has determined that a noncitizen seeking to reopen to pursue relief from removal must show a reasonable likelihood of success on the relief to obtain reopening. The “reasonable likelihood” standard requires a petitioner to show more than a mere possibility she will establish a claim for relief, but it does not require the petitioner to demonstrate she is more likely than not to prevail. “In contrast, the ‘would likely change’ standard requires a petitioner to establish that it is at least more probable than not that the new evidence would change the outcome of the claim. The ‘would likely change’ standard plainly places a heavier burden on a petitioner than the ‘reasonable likelihood’ standard. Today, we clarify any possible confusion in our case law and reaffirm that the ‘reasonable likelihood’ standard applies to decisions made on the prima facie ground, and the ‘would likely change’ standard applies to decisions made on the discretionary ground.
The full text of Fonseca-Fonseca v. Garland can be found here:
https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2023/08/08/20-71977.pdf